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Mailbag: Jose Abreu

July 5, 2014

Hi CL,

Did you expect Jose Abreu to do this well? If I wanted him, what would he cost me?

Buying

Dear Customer,

Do this well? Honestly? No. Season long I figured 25-30 HR, hoping for 35. 85-95 RBI on a shit White Sox club, hoping for 105. I figured OBP .375, and he’s actually 50 pips below that, but I guess that’s because people keep pitching to him. Suits me.  

If we were drafting today I’d expect he’d go in the back half of the top-10, where Chris Davis went to start the year. Chris Davis (March) and Jose Abreu (today) are pretty close comparables. Stupid power at 1B on middling teams with a track record that’s too short to push them into the top-5. As such I would need first-round talent in return. I don’t believe a “first round pitcher” exists so that’s a first-round bat. 

Alternately, a package of talent that would patch up my holes (3B, C) and give me a #1 starter or two closers. 

Shaggy likes to trade. So from him, for instance, I’d take (Rendon, Montero) plus either Price or Cueto or both of Perkins and K-Rod. Obviously Kershaw would suit as the pitching component but I expect Shaggy actually thinks he’s first round material, so since I don’t believe first-round pitching exists, that’s a non-starter.

I expect some people in the league would say “that’s way too much” and some others would say “That’s it? Who do Montero and Rendon play for anyway?” but that’s what makes a market.

As always, make me an offer.

Hugs,

CL 

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