Skip to content

Jose Letter, Part 1

June 9, 2015

Dear CL, 

I am near the top of most pitching(I am punting saves) cats but I am barely over .500 in head to head match ups. 

I went back to the draft and I took my first pitcher in round 9, then had a run from round 11-17. I am ahead of everyone who drafted a pitcher before round 9. Suck it rest of league. 

I also noticed everyone else had taken pitchers well before round 9 (they took 2 or 3 in the first 9 rounds) with the exception of Burger. He took his first pitcher at round 10. Burger and myself had a similar strategy.

Pitching numbers – I am ahead of Burger in the counting stats, but am 3-1-3 in the head to head stats. Burger is is 5-2. I have the stats but he has what matters most and that is wins. This of course pisses me off. I think I drafted about as well as I could for pitching and I am still losing.

Question #1- Are there any fancy numbers or math nerd stats that would lead me to believe that my head to head stats will improve?

Question #2- Is this my punishment for being Copps, taller, better looking cousin? (I am tired of winning in life, I just want to win in fantasy.)

Joe O.

Dear Jose,

Let me emulate Obama and take your second question first. I’m thinking “no” because the bar is really low there.

To your first question in comparing your team to Burger, I don’t quite follow what you mean by you being 3-1-3 and him being 5-2. What I would say is that so much of this is random and so much depends on your weekly opponent. That may seem obvious and it may also seem obvious that you should just put up numbers as best you can and hope it works out. That’s fine, sort of, but it doesn’t really describe just how much variance you might have to contend with.

We’re through nine weeks. It’s only one stat, but here are my weekly ERA finals, in order, weeks 1-9:

2.87, 2.45, 2.82, 3.99, 6.95, 2.98, 2.70, 3.07, 0.94.

I’m averaging 3.32, but the closest thing I’ve had to an average week is the 3.07. (That 6.95 was the week you and Josephina were down. I blame you.)

At time of writing, Dutch Boy is leading the league in season-long ERA, at 3.02. You’re right there at 3.09. But if you guys put up your average-week, 6 of my 9 weeklies beat him, and 7 of my 9 weeklies beat you.

You ask if there’s basis to believe your H2H stats will improve. In the long run the odds are with you, but as some economist (Galbraith? Keynes?) pointed out, “in the long run, we’re all dead”. Fantasy baseball isn’t about the long run. It’s about one season. H2H fantasy isn’t even about that. It’s about 24 one-week mini-seasons. Long run? Runs don’t get much shorter than that.

Shaggy and I had been going back and forth in chat box about Hunter Pence. I’d stated I had always been low on Pence post-injury, and that Pence’s meagre numbers bore me out. Shaggy was going on about small sample size (71 AB) and how that was irresponsible of me–and Shaggy didn’t get it.

Pence is injured again, now, so we’ll never know what just-the-one-hand-injury would have meant. But I wasn’t trying to say that Pence won’t play six more years, push 2,500 hits, 300 HR, and 200 SB, and be a cult HOF choice. Can’t you hear it? “Small/West-Coast markets his whole career! Giants’ park kills HR!”

What I was trying to tell Shaggy is that, in a redraft league, a broken hand followed by 2 HR in 71 AB isn’t a great look.

Will your H2H stuff iron itself by season’s end? It might, but I doubt it. Season’s too short.

Hugs,

CL

Part two of Jose’s letter runs mañana.

Advertisements

From → Uncategorized

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: