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Free Agent Market Clogged?

January 1, 2016

Happy-New-Year

Happy New Year one and all!

Tony Blengino had an interesting piece at Fangraphs yesterday:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-davis-and-the-free-agent-bottleneck/

The thrust of it is that Chris Davis really turned down 7/$154M from the Oriolesit not only delayed resolution of his own situation it made life harder on everybody else. Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon are all still out there, and they must be thinking “If Davis can laugh in the face of $22M AAV, I shouldn’t be in a hurry to sign either”.

As Blengino points out, if that was the Orioles offer, Davis was probably nuts to turn it down. Davis looks a lot like Ryan Howard, and this deal looks even more ridiculous than Ryan Howard’s last contract.

Davis is a better fielder than Howard, I’d point out, but that might mean the Orioles are only overpaying by $30M instead of overpaying by $50M. Whoop-de-do.

Regardless of what I think Davis is worth (I wouldn’t go longer or higher than 4/$75M) surely Justin Upton’s crowd are thinking that Jason Heyward (7/$184M, allegedly turned down 7/$200M) signed too cheap and that Upton’s own AAV has to be pushing $30M  if Davis can run away from $22M through age-37.

More interesting here would be if Davis overplayed his hand and has to settle for a one year deal. At that point the market quasi-collapses and all the mid-payroll teams are suddenly in on everybody else. Gordon might go back to the Royals and all of a sudden the White Sox, Mets, Rangers, and so on think they can buy. Or the Yankees might get talked into buying a year early.

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