Skip to content

Clayton Kershaw… First Overall?

January 5, 2016

4517              The man himself.

I don’t take pitchers before, like Round 15, but Clayton Kershaw makes me wonder if I should. It’s a 5×5 Roto stat, but Kershaw has returned top-10 value in each of the last five years. Mike Trout has done it each of the four years he’s played but there’s no fun in a blog post that argues for Trout as a #1 pick. If you must, change the title of this post to ‘Clayton Kershaw… Second Overall?”

The argument for taking Kershaw first or second is a conservative one: “I can’t win the league with my first round pick, so my job is not to lose it there. Kershaw is most likely to return first-round value, so I’m taking him.”

Turns out getting first round value out of your first round pick is tougher than it looks. This is the NFBC (pay league 5×5 15-team Roto … but I’m going to stop apologising that it’s Roto right here) ADP of the top-15 guys in order last year:

NFBC ADP: Trout, Cutch, Kershaw, Stanton, Goldy, Cabrera, Abreu, GoGo, Bautista, Encarnacion, Felix, Altuve, Rizzo, Adam Jones, Tulo

GCBL, including the #15 turn pick: Trout, Cabrera, Stanton, Cutch, Goldy, Abreu, Kershaw, GoGo, Bautista, Encarnacion, Cano, Adam Jones, Rizzo, Rendon, HanRam

Now here’s the top-15 ACTUAL performers in NFBC last year. If you see numbers after their name, it’s [where they went in the NFBC ADP/where they went in our league]

Actual Top-15 NFBC Return: Arrieta, Greinke, KERSHAW 3/7, GOLDY 5/5, Pollock, Harper, Dee Gordon, Donaldson, ALTUVE 12/-, TROUT, 1/1, Arenado, Machado, Keuchel, Scherzer, Cruz.

Four of the NFBC top-15 picks returned top-15 value (Kershaw, Goldy, Altuve, Trout). Our league hit three, missing Altuve.

Now Kershaw wasn’t #1, he wasn’t the #1 pitcher. Fuck, he wasn’t the #1 pitcher on his own team. But he was #3.

Kershaw overall value by season, 2011-15: 5th, 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd

You want a guy in the top-10 every year? Kershaw.

Does our league really change things from Roto? Claim not really. On the pitching side we add QS (actually good for starters) and HRA not great for starters, punishes 5th starters) and that feels like a wash. On the hitting side the speedsters likely don’t make our top-15 especially with OBP in for BA, but that’s small potatoes.

The conservative play is Kershaw in the first round… and I’m thinking about taking him, given the chance.

Advertisements

From → Uncategorized

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: