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Draft Pick Trade Part 2: Why I Won

January 8, 2016

Following on, here’s why I won the trade.

If you look at the Kershaw article below the first trade article we showed how last year’s first round picks didn’t necessarily generate first round value. So early picks are overrated. Here are the top 15 actual NFBC performers last year, and where we drafted them (round.pick) last year:

Arrieta (9.02), Greinke (4.07), Kershaw (1.07), Goldschmidt (1.05), Pollock (14.11), Dee Gordon (3.10), Harper (3.01), Donaldson (2.03), Altuve (2.07), Trout (1.01), Arenado (4.03), Machado (7.13), Keuchel (15.02), Scherzer (2.14), Cruz (6.01).

Eight of these guys were drafted within the first three rounds (including Dee Gordon, for whose pick this writer took much abuse). But seven of them (rounds bolded) were taken in Round 4 or later. That’s almost half-and-half… and if we’re throwing darts, I’ve traded three darts for eight. Good deal.

Something else: Injuries happen, and injuries to top guys are catastrophic. Whether they are knocked out completely (Stanton) or try to play through it (Miguel Cabrera), when top-5 guys aren’t producing, the hit to the line-up is massive. With a stack of guys Rounds 4-11, I’m spreading out my risk.

Last year I had the studs and couldn’t wait to shuffle the risk away.

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