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Mailbag: Converting NFBC ADP

January 11, 2017

Hi CL,

How do you adjust the NFBC ADP numbers to our league?

Thanks,

Doing my Homework Early

Dear Quick Learner,

It’s a pretty good list as people are paying real $$$ to play those leagues, but you’re right: our 7×7 H2H league is far different from 5×5 NFBC Roto. Highlights:

BATTING

–NFBC is a two-catcher league, so all the catchers are going way, way too early on their list for our purposes. Anybody after their 20th catcher shouldn’t be on your board at all unless you have a feeling about him.

–They also dress five OF to our four, so the OF are going a little too early.

–They only have one UT spot and we have two. Combine that with NFBC multiple position eligibility being much harder to get than in Yahoo, and it means that guys with NFBC multi-position eligibility go really early on their list (see Trea Turner, #12 overall).

–DH-only types go much later on NFBC because starting one clogs the one and only UT slot. Big Papi was third-round value in our league the last few years (second if he had 1B), where he’d be past #100 in NFBC because he never played 1B enough to qualify.

–SB demons tend to go earlier in NFBC (see Jose Altuve, #3 overall) because in their league SB is one category in five, whereas with us it’s one in seven.

–NFBC uses AVG, where we use OBP. So everything else equal, if Player A has a .290 AVG and .330 OBP, in NFBC he’ll go much earlier than player B who bats .250 with a .370 OBP. In our league, it ought to be the opposite. A guy like Joey Votto is first-round talent in our league, but NFBC has him #27…and he’s gone as late as #41.

PITCHING

The difference here is more subtle, but there’s something to think about. NFBC is weekly-moves, so that means a couple things:

  1. If your pitcher has the Rays on Monday and the Jays on the weekend, you need to commit to both starts or neither in the NFBC.
  2. In general then, in NFBC, there’s no benching your staff on weekends if you’re ahead.

What I’m arguing for, them, is that you should take the NFBC starting pitcher list and squish it together a little. SP between #150-#250 are probably going where they should. SP going before #150 are probably going a little too early for our purposes, and SP going after #250 are going a little too late because in our league you can pick your starts and sits.

I’m not arguing that the SP going #300 is better than the one going #100… not at all. I’m just saying that in our league the difference between them isn’t as big, because it’s much easier to spot-start the #300 guy…and there’ll be the occasional Sunday where you’re benching the #100 guy against the Twins (or even Clayton Kershaw for that matter) because you don’t need his W and QS and you don’t want to risk blowing up ratio categories.

Thanks for writing,

CL

 

 

 

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