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Mailbag: Phillips; Peraza

February 13, 2017

Hi CL,

a question…does Brandon Phillips lose value leaving hitter friendly Cincinnati and going to unknown Atlanta park?  How far up the draft board does Pereza shoot up?

–BOB SAGET

Hi Saget,

I don’t know about Phillips. He only had 12 and 11 HR his last two seasons anyway, and he’s yet another year older. So he’s a 10/10 type anywhere I think. He has much more value in AVG leagues where he’s a plus contributor (.290) as opposed to our OBP-league where he’s a drag (.320).

Peraza’s ADP before the Phillips trade (NFBC: #137) was too high, given that he had no position. It will rise again, and be too high again. I think he breaks into the top-100 now, and he has no place being there. He has no power at all, and he gets thrown out too much (37% last year). Further, the Reds also have Dilson Herrera, and Peraza is something of a head case. Scott Standberg at Fangraphs wrote about it at length two weeks ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/everyone-is-paying-too-much-for-jose-peraza/

and I simply won’t be spending a pick as early as is required to get him. Sure, maybe he steals 60 bases. But a part-time role with a .310 OBP is just as likely, and that’s not a risk I can afford in the 7th or 8th round.

Thanks for writing,

CL

 

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