Mailbag: Phillips; Peraza
Hi CL,
a question…does Brandon Phillips lose value leaving hitter friendly Cincinnati and going to unknown Atlanta park? How far up the draft board does Pereza shoot up?
–BOB SAGET
Hi Saget,
I don’t know about Phillips. He only had 12 and 11 HR his last two seasons anyway, and he’s yet another year older. So he’s a 10/10 type anywhere I think. He has much more value in AVG leagues where he’s a plus contributor (.290) as opposed to our OBP-league where he’s a drag (.320).
Peraza’s ADP before the Phillips trade (NFBC: #137) was too high, given that he had no position. It will rise again, and be too high again. I think he breaks into the top-100 now, and he has no place being there. He has no power at all, and he gets thrown out too much (37% last year). Further, the Reds also have Dilson Herrera, and Peraza is something of a head case. Scott Standberg at Fangraphs wrote about it at length two weeks ago:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/everyone-is-paying-too-much-for-jose-peraza/
and I simply won’t be spending a pick as early as is required to get him. Sure, maybe he steals 60 bases. But a part-time role with a .310 OBP is just as likely, and that’s not a risk I can afford in the 7th or 8th round.
Thanks for writing,
CL
