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Goldschmidt vs. Votto

March 13, 2017

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Let’s be clear: I’m not here to bag on either guy. They’re both deserving of being top-10 Fantasy picks. But that’s my point: they’re both top-10, even if NFBC has Goldschmidt at #7 and Votto at #22, and Yahoo O-Rank says #6 vs #19.

Why? Because our league uses OBP, not AVG.

Now Goldschmidt’s OBP should be excellent this year… .400 anybody? Votto could reach .450. Advantage Votto.

In Goldschmidt’s favour he should steal more bases… maybe 20 to Votto’s 10. Goldschmidt swiped 21 bags in the second half last year and 32 overall, but those numbers won’t be happening again with the second-tier of the Red Sox front office/bench setting up shop in Arizona. The Sawx have the math that shows that stealing bases is a losing proposition if you don’t have an 80% success rate. Goldschmidt won’t stop running completely, 20 seems OK, but running will be de-emphasised overall.

Otherwise, they’re pretty similar guys … 30 HR out of 1B on teams that should be pretty poor. The question is do you want an extra 0.5 steals a week, or the 30-50 pips in OBP.

Goldschmidt at #6-#8 is an expected, solid pick.

Votto later than #10 is a steal.

 

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